Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
